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EFSports.com News
Wild Card Weekend Games
Denver vs Indianapolis
Indianapolis Overview (RG):
A quarterback who will probably go down in history as the greatest ever
mans the most explosive offense in the league. Peyton Manning’s record
breaking season brings the Colts into the playoffs with their greatest chance of
advancing to the Superbowl in decades. Lead by Manning’s record 49
touchdowns, the Colts put up an earth shattering 32.6 points per game
to lead the NFL. The team finished first in passing yards per game at
288.9, 15th in rushing yards per game at 115.8 and second in total yards with
404.7. Those are the numbers for the Colts offense, the scary part
relates to the intangibles. The Colts offensive attack is controlled by Peyton
Manning who reads NFL defenses better than any quarterback in the
league; Manning steps up under center and then has the option to choose between
several plays and make adjustments to the scheme on the fly. Manning’s
uncanny ability to make these adjustments has kept the Colts a step
ahead of NFL defenses all season.
At his disposal, Manning has one of the best corps of skill position
players in the league. His trio of wide receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie
Wayne and Brandon Stokley) all have over 1000 yards receiving and 10
touchdowns (a first in NFL history). His running back is Pro Bowl caliber Edgerrin
James who is finally 1005 healthy from his knee injury and put up 1548 yards
from the ground and almost 2000 total yards from scrimmage. His Tight Ends
(Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark) are two of the leagues elite pass
catching tight ends. If that isn’t enough Manning has ample time to pick an
opponent’s defense apart; his offensive line is one of the best (only
allowing 13 sacks).
Perhaps the only weakness the Indianapolis might have is their defense.
The defense finished the season giving up 21.9 ppg (19th), 127.3 rushing
yards per game (24th), 243.3 passing yards per game (29th) and 370.6 total
yards per game (29th). Despite those disappointing numbers, not all is
dreary on the Indianapolis defense. Indy’s defense may have bent this year, but
they also quite often snapped right back tying for the league lead in total
takeaways with 35 and leading the league in turnover differential at
+20. in the areas that count the most, Indianapolis’s defense has clearly
stepped up. Many would say that they have gone far enough to help charge a
drive to Jacksonville, and the unit is only getting better as the year progresses.
Players to Watch:
Peyton Manning: Manning and the Colts offense are at their most
masterful at home in the dome where they can launch an aerial assault without
worrying about the elements. Manning should find plenty of opportunities to
strike against the Broncos defense that likes to leave their corners on
islands and several of those opportunities should lead to big plays.
Edgerrin James: The Colts would like to get James off to a good start
to allow Manning to work the play action passing game. James may have a
tough go at it, as the Broncos are one of the few NFL teams that allow less
than 100 yards per game rushing. Expect the combination of James’ ability
and the threat of Manning torching the secondary to be enough for Edge to
establish the Colt’s running game.
Dwight Freeney: He led the league with sixteen sacks and has rapidly
shown why the Colts drafted him so high. Freeney’s speed rush off of the end
has been devastating to the Colts’ opponents. For the Colts, Freeney’s
ability to chase down Jake Plummer and limit his ability to throw on the run
will be critical to shutting down Denver’s offense. Once the Colts take a
lead, look for Freeney to be let loose to showcase his skills.
Indianapolis Game Plan:
The Colts offensive game plan will be simple, establish a credible
running threat early and then work the play action passing game out of their 3
WR sets. Expect the Colts to come out firing with the passing game as
well and look for a couple of deep strikes on the first series.
On defense, the team will first lock up the Denver running game and try
to make Jake Plummer beat them through the air. The defensive ends will
try to collapse the pocket from the outside to eliminate Plummer’s ability to
throw on the run.
Prediction:
Indianapolis is simply too good in the dome for the Broncos to hang on.
I don’t expect the Broncos to be run out of the game like last year’s
playoff battle but the game won’t be close either. Indy will strike quickly
and establish an early lead. Once this is done, it will be game over for
the Broncos and game on for the Colts defensive ends who will be able to go
all out in the pass rush.
Denver - 21
Indianapolis - 37
Denver Broncos (TC)
The Broncos won last week’s matchup against Indy, and tried some intimidation tactics both during the game (Lynch’s hit on Clark) and talking this week before the game (Lynch and Kennedy). Keep this up and the Broncos will soon be acquiring a reputation ..... well they already have one for their OL cheap shots at opposing DL inflicting debilitating injuries, so why not add to it? Then there is Mike Shanahan’s reputation-seems like he cannnot win playoff games without QB J Elway? Will that trend continue?
Luckily for the Broncos, QB Jake Plummer has had some very good games the past few weeks. The key for his success for him to roll out and make decisions on the move, outside the pocket. It remains to be seen if that will happen today, given the speed at DE that Indy has. The Denver running game is the basis upon which everything else flows off of-in some ways just like the Colts. Again this year injuries have taken their toll. But FB R Droughns and RB T Bell are both primed to carry the load. The speedy carpet in Indy may turn out to be a showcase for Bell’s speed and moves. WR A Lelie is finally starting to fulfill some of the promise that the team foresaw in him; he has teamed with WR J Smith to form a potent duo. TE J Putzier has also opened some eyes this year and is having a terrific season-not quite up to the standards of S Sharpe, but not bad.
On defense, the Broncos have to pressure Manning, and unlike Plummer, make Manning move out of the pocket. In that respect, the return of DE T Pryce is almost a must. In addition, R Hayward has to continue his recent play where he has become a force rushing the passer. The best LB on this team are A Wilson and rookie D J Williams. CB C Bailey and K Herndon will have their hands full with M Harrison and R Wayne. The question remains-who will take B Stokely? Both the safeties yapped their mouths this week, so they will be targets for Indy-particularly the TE’s.
Players to Watch:
for Denver to win these players are instrumental-
DE’s: Hayward and Pryce...they have to both pressure Manning and stop the wide running plays. If Manning is forced out of the pocket his passing efficiency seems to decline. Plus he is not known as a runner, but he is certainly capable of getting 3rd downs that way. Disrupting the timing of Manning and his WR’s is crucial for Denver to even have a chance to win this game.
CB’s: Herndon and C Bailey will be the first line of defense. Bailey was acquired specifically for this type of game-shutdown the WR opposite him. Problem is that Indy has 3 excellent WR...so the big unanswered question here is who will cover Stokely in the slot? Look for the WR who is not covered by Herndon and Bailey to have a very good day.
Backfield: RB Droughns, RB Bell and QB Plummer all have to continue their recent great play for the Broncos to win. Establishing a running game means Denver can control the clock and match the Colts score for score. Punt too many times and they will fall behind and have to play catch up....
Broncos game plan:
Take advantage of the field of play-utilize their speed on offense with RB T Bell and at WR with A Lelie and R Smith. Give Indy a healthy dose of Droughns and Bell-run those guys 30+ times in this game. Hope Bell breaks some bid plays on this carpet-perhaps on screens too? Stretch the field deep with A Lelie. Block DE Freeney and Mathis-negate their speed. On defense, pressure Manning with 4 DL, cover with 7. Critical matchup is the slot WR Stokely-dont let him beat you.
Prediction:
I dont see that Denver has much of a chance winning in Indy, so Coach Shanny;s post-Elway record of failure in playoff games will continue. This game will ultimately turn into a track meet, with Colts coming out on top in a high scoring game.
Denver 24
Indy 38
Saint Louis vs. Seattle
Saint Louis Overview (RG):
Maybe they aren’t the greatest show on turf anymore, but the Rams still
have an offense to be reckoned with and they showed why in their season
finale against the Jets. In a must win game, the Rams showed there mettle by
passing for 450 yards and 3 scores against a respectable Jets defense.
Over the year, the Rams have averaged 101.5 ypg rushing (25th), 265.8 ypg
passing (5th), and 367.3 ypg total (6th). The Ram’s offense is clearly moving
the ball, but their scoring average of 19.9 points per game shows that the
team is having difficulty converting that production into scores. One of
the huge problems that the Rams are facing is their giveaway/takeaway
ratio. At –21, the Rams rank last in the NFL, Martz has always been very cavalier
with his offense not caring about turnovers as much as other NFL coaches,
but this year a combination of few takeaways on defense and decreased red
zone efficiency have made those giveaways much more painful.
On defense, the Rams have been quite simply abysmal, allowing 136.2
(29th) yards per game on the ground and 334.6 (17th) total yards per game. I
would hazard that the only reason their passing defense looks good is that
team don’t want to and don’t need to pass on them. By grinding the ball out
on the ground opponents have been able to control the tempo of the game
and keep the Ram’s high-octane offense on the sidelines.
Players to Watch:
Mark Bulger: In order for the Ram’s to win, Bulger will have to turn in
a very solid performance. Limiting turnovers isn’t as much of a key as
hitting the big plays. The Rams must make several big plays down the
field to their wide receivers and rely on their quick strike offense to win.
Steven Jackson: If Jackson can help the Rams in the running game, it
will free things up for the wide receivers in the middle of the field and
they can complete their intermediate mid field routes against a suspect
Seahawks secondary. When given the chance, this rookie has performed very well,
it’s likely that he will have about 20-25 carries and he must make the most
of them.
Leonard Little: The Rams sack master has had a very shaky year but
looks to be getting things going just in time for the playoffs. He needs to be
able to put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck and force errant throws in the
passing game.
Saint Louis Game Plan:
Air Martz will be in full effect against the Seahawks weak secondary.
So far St. Louis has owned Seattle and has used their passing game to
exploit the weak Seattle coverage. Look for Martz to try to strike quick with
the deep ball and use St. Louis’s speed at wide receiver to create matchup
problems for Seattle. Only look for a token presence in the running
game, as St Louis will go with its strength to win this game.
On defense, the team will try and hold Stephen Alexander to a
reasonable number but the main focus will be keeping Seattle from making the big plays.
If Saint Louis can limit Seattle’s offense to a one-dimensional
running game, they can survive all but the most monstrous of days from Alexander.
Prediction:
Saint Louis’s offense will be geared up for their 3rd matchup against a
team they’ve owned all year. Look for a huge game out of Tory Holt and
expect the Ram’s to start fast. Seattle should put up a good fight but the
Rams will get the lead early and hang onto it to win a fairly close game.
Saint Louis - 31
Seattle - 24
Seattle Seahawks (TC)
Seattle did what they had to do to win the NFC West, but just barely. QB M Hasselbeck is still recovering from a blow to his right elbow, RB S Alexander has had to back off his ‘Me first...’ attittude, and WR K Robinson is a bit of a mystery due to his off field antics recently. Still, this team persevered, won their division and made it into the playoffs with a home game against a team they lost to twice during the regular season. Those losses must torment the Seahawks but at the same time should provide some incentive too. This offense can be so very explosive but it appears to be one with issues too: the WR drop too many passes, Alexander was having fumbling problems up until last week, Hasselbeck’s injury caused some concern, with all this adding up to a perception that you never quite know what is going to happen. Sitll Alexander finished one yard shy of tying C Martin for the league rushing title, Hasselbeck had a good year and WR D Jackson improved a lot.
On defense, this has been a year in which injuries robbed this team of any consistency, particularly at LB. But both A Simmons and C Brown have returned, Brown with a vengence. The Seahawk defense is built upon speed which one would think would aid them immensely agianst the Rams. Unfortunately their best DE, G Wistrom, has been injured and may not play in this game. If he does, he could be severly hampered.
Seattle Game Plan:
Run S Alexander 25+ times in this game, play ball control passing game, but take some shots down the field when warranted. Attack the safeties for the Rams. On defense, pressure Bulger by bltizing the LB’s. Safeties play deep to prevent long completions.
Players to watch:
S K Hamlin and M Boulware both have to be assignment sure, not letting any WR get behind them; they have to keep all the plays in front of them. Bulger throws a great deep ball, that is what these Safeties have to be cognizant of and prevent any long completions. Run support will also be important, stopping Faulk and Jackson.
QB M Hasselbeck has to have one of his best games ever for this team to win. He must pick his spots but be aggressive down the field to make plays. He also should get WR D Jackson and K Robinson into the flow early-if Robinson plays.
Prediction:
The Rams have the confidence factor on their side, but the Seahawks have the home field and also the redemption factor to play. This game too will be high scoring.....
StLouis 30
Seattle 33
New York Jets vs San Diego
San Diego Overview (RG):
Cinderella made the dance, and they did it behind a very uncharacteristic offensive attack for coach Marty Shottenheimer. In week 2, the Chargers displayed some of what was to come as they put up 28 points against the Jets. However, Drew Brees hadn’t yet moved into season form and was actually benched in favor of backup Doug Flutie. What a change the season brought. Now Brees is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL with a 104.8 passer rating and 27 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. The Chargers also have LaDanian Tomlinson at full speed for the post season, giving them a great one-two punch between Tomlinson pounding the ball and TE Antonio Gates working the middle of the field. The Chargers offense has not put up a ton of yards 347 total yards per game (10th) but have managed to score regularly (27.9 ppg – 3rd). The Chargers are the perfect example of a
team that uses an efficient quarterback and balanced attack to beat opponents.
On defense, the Chargers have been very solid, allowing only 19.6 ppg
(11th) and holding opponents to 81.7 yards per game on the ground (3rd). The
team’s one defensive weakness is the youth of its corners that has
allowed opponents to exploit them through the air. Giving up big pass plays
and big penalties has been San Diego’s Achilles heel.
Players to Watch:
Donnie Edwards: The cog of San Diego’s aggressive run stuffing defense
will need to come up big against NFL rushing leader Curtis Martin. Look for
Edwards to step up to the challenge and keep Martin in check.
Quentin Jammer: Jammer is a great corner but he lives up to his name
too much. Jammer has been called for illegal contact, pass interference
and holding penalties more than any other corner in the league. To keep
from putting his team in a bad position, Jammer must step up against the
Jets receivers and play the same aggressive coverage without the big penalites.
LaDanian Tomlinson: Now that San Diego is in the dance, the team will
rely on their franchise back more than ever. A healthy Tomlinson can shred
any NFL defense, including the Jets solid run-stuffing unit. Once
Tomlinson gets things on track, look for Brees to hook up with Antonio Gates for
some big receptions over the middle.
San Diego Gameplan:
On offense, San Diego will establish the running game early and let
that set up play action for Antonio Gates over the middle. Expect at least on
big passing play to Gates in this game.
On defense, the Chargers will stack up against Curtis Martin and force
a hurt Chad Pennington to beat them through the air.
Prediction:
The Chargers match up very well against the Jets and expect them to
control this game throughout. The Jets defense and Curtis Martin will keep the
game close but in the end the Chargers will keep the dream alive for one more week.
New York Jets – 21
San Diego – 27
New York Jets (TC)
The Jets come into San Diego with the leading rusher in the league-C Martin-and a slightly struggling QB, C Pennington, trying to find his rhythm after returning from injury several weeks ago. Obviously the Jets are a dominant rushing team. Having established C Martin they then attack defenses with play action passes to S Moss and J McCareins. Unfortunately the WR have not produced as much as envisioned before the season, but some of that is due to injuries at the QB position.
On defense, the Jets rely on pressure from the DL and the speed of their LB and DB’s. Unfortunately for the Jets it appears that their best DL-J Abraham-has had a setback to his knee injury and wont play this weekend. That hurts their chances immensely. The LB corps led by ROY J Vilma and Barton are fast and will hit hard. The DB’s are somewhat unsung but they play well. They will be tested by this SD offense.
Jets Gameplan:
Run C Martin over and over and over.....then hit the Chargers with play acton passes. The Charger CB’s have been much maligned this season, so look for passes to Moss and McCareins to be successful. The TE should play a prominent role, but their production would have to increase dramatically. On defense, the first priority is to stop LT-both in the run game and in pass situations. Attack QB D Brees and make him assess blitzes, etc. Lastly, know where TE A Gates is at all times....SD likes to look for him often and from anywhere on field.
Players to watch:
OL: the OL has to control the line of scrimmage against a very good SD front 7 in a 3-4 defense. DT J Williams is the run stuffer-if OC K Mawae cant go then the Jets could be in trouble!
QB C Pennington has to revert to last year’s form and take some shots down the field when those opportunities arise. Lately he has not been doing that-he has consistently taken the dump off passes, limiting the play potential for this offense and stifling it.
Prediction:
The Chargers resurgence continues, their defense will stop C Martin often enough to preserve their lead. LT will have a very good day, probably not a great day. Lots of rain is forecast so keys to this game will be- a consistent run game, passing success under adverse conditions.
NY Jets 17
San Diego 23
Minnesota vs Green Bay
Minnesota Overview (RG):
The Minnesota Vikings once again tried to make their late season dive
out of the playoffs. This year, they were saved by the poor showing of the
rest of the NFC and found themselves limping into the playoffs with new hope
and a potent offensive attack led by Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss.
Minnesota finished the season sixth in scoring offense with 25.3 points
per game and led the way with their passing game averaging 282.3 (second to
only league leading Indianapolis). With Randy Moss gone or limited for 4
games, the Vikings were forced to develop their other receiving options and
found that they had a dangerous tandem in Marcus Robinson and second year
player Nate Burleson. These two receivers will be essential if the Vikings
expect to make it past Green Bay in Lambeau.
Once again, defense was the weakness of the Vikings. Who despite newly
acquired corner Antoinne Winfield still allowed 24.7 points per game.
The Vikings defense has the potential to be a solid unit but it is still
growing and can be exploited by a veteran team like Green Bay. The linebackers
are young and vulnerable to misdirection and the team has little secondary
depth to support Winfield.
Players to Watch:
Daunte Culpepper: This guy has put in one of the best seasons in the
history of the NFL and no one has said a word about it. He can thank Peyton
Manning for that. In week 5 it was Culpepper that was set to break Marino’s
record as he passed for 5 touchdowns in 3 of the first 5 games. The injury to
Moss and confusion in the running game slowed down the Minnesota assault and
Culpepper had to settle for a simply magnificent instead of record
breaking year. Look for Culpepper to play all out against the Packers, his
heart and talent will be enough to keep the Vikings in this one.
Randy Moss: Moss still doesn’t seem to be up to full speed but he is
regaining some of his deep playmaking ability. A 100% effort from Moss
will be necessary to exploit Green Bay’s vulnerable secondary.
Minnesota Game Plan:
Minnesota will have to simply try and outscore Favre and the Packers,
the Vikings running game is lost without starting Tackle Mike Rosenthal and
TE Jim Kleinsasser. The Vikings defense is also way to vulnerable to hope
that they can keep the Packers under 30 points so look for this to be a
shoot out.
Minnesota will spread the field and let Culpepper go to work against
Green Bay. Expect the deep ball to open up the Packer’s defense to many
short to intermediate routes to tight end Jermaine Wiggins who should have a big game.
Prediction:
The game will be a hard fought offensive showcase but in the end the
Vikings defense won’t be nearly enough to stop Brett Favre and the mystique of
Lambeau as the Packers win this one late.
Minnesota – 31
Green Bay – 37
Green Bay Packers (TC)
Green Bay comes into this game as the third ranked scoring offense in the NFL-they will need to exceed their average of 26 ppg in order to win this game. QB B Favre is reknowned for his success in cold weather games-the forecast for this game is temperatures in lo 30’s which is not too bad for this time of year in GB. to win, the Packers have to have success running the ball which leads to play action passes to their WR and TE. RB A Green has been bothered by Achilles all season and prime backup N Davenport missed last week with broken ribs. So the Packer RB situation is not 100% healthy. Still, look for heavy doses of Green, Davenport and T Fisher. QB B Favre has to have some success throwing the ball to Driver, J Walker and B Franks.....if not, then the Pack wont win.
The Packer Defense has been horrible this season, particularly pass defense by rookie DB’s Carroll and Thomas. They both use poor technique and get called for holding or interference far too often. Look for A Harris to blanket R Moss with over the top help from Safety D Sharper. That means that Carroll or Thomas will shadow WR N Burleson, which implies that Burleson will have a very good game.
Players to watch:
DT Grady Jackson: Jackson’s knee, which suffered a dislocated kneecap in week 1, has been bothering him lately, so much so that his participation in number of plays pber game has diminished each week over the past 4 games. He missed last week against da Bears. Jackson is the run stuffer and pressures the pocket up the middle-if he can play 30-40 snaps then the Packers chances of winning increase dramatically.
DE’s A Kampman and KGB: they need to pressure Culpepper, sack him if they can, and keep him in the pocker, not letting him convert 3rd downs on the run.
LB H Navies: blanket TE J Wiggins...Navies has been hurt, playing with a shoulder harness, which limits him.
QB B Favre: Favre has to resist his tendencies to take chances, even though S C Chavous is out with injury. He cannot force balls into coverage. If he does this then he will have been successful.
Prediction: The Packers defense is just not good enough to consistently stop anyone. Plus they dont generate enough turnovers. So look for a high scoring game. The Packer running game needs to generate 120+ yards for them to win.
Vikings 31
Packers 35
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