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Minnesota vs. Philadelphia
Minnesota Overview (RG)
The Vikings are coming off of a very solid performance in green Bay
where Daunte Culpepper rushed for 54 yards and threw for 4 touchdowns and 284
yards to lead the Vikings to victory. In the game, the Vikings
receivers and defense both came up big. The defense forced Farve into some very
bad throws, picking him off 4 times. As the team gets ready for
Philadelphia, one name keeps popping to the top of stories and that name is Randy Moss. Moss’s antics over the last 2 weeks have caused plenty to talk about,
but perhaps the least talked about issue concerning Moss is his injured
ankle which could cause problems for the Vikings uber receiver against a very
physical Eagles secondary.
Vikings Game Plan:
On offense Minnesota will need to stick with what got them here and
that is their passing game. Even with Moss out, the Vikings attack was still
very effective with second and third receivers Nate Burleson and Marcus
Robinson stepping up. But it is a certainty that the deep play threat of Randy
Moss is a huge part of the Vikings offense. If Moss is healthy enough,
Culpepper will need to try and stretch the field immediately and keep
Philadelphia’s corners from playing touch bump and run coverage against Moss. In
order to win the Vikings receivers must come up big and beat the Eagles corners
for jump balls in the end zone.
On defense the Vikings have a solid interior pass rush with All Pro
Defensive tackle Kevin Williams but are suspect at both the defensive
end and linebacker position which could cause problems in containing a very
mobile Donovan McNabb. If McNabb is able to break containment and make
plays from outside of the pocket then it could be a very long day for
the Minnesota defenders that will be forced to chase him down. The other
key for the Minnesota defense is to clamp down on outlet passes to Brian
Westbrook, if Westbrook can get the ball open in the flats then his
speed and elusiveness will allow him to turn short 5 yard passes into big
chunks of yardage. With Terrell Owens out and the lack of another playmaking
receiver, don’t expect the Eagles to try and exploit Minnesota’s
secondary, but weakness at linebacker may make for a big game for Donovan and
Brian Westbrook.
Key Matchups:
Lito Shepherd vs. Randy Moss: If Shepherd can play solid bump and run
coverage against Moss then it should come close to neutralizing the
Vikings biggest threat. Moss is clearly not 100% and physical corner play will
make that all the more evident. If Shepherd backs off of Moss then Randy
will be able to get involved more easily in the offense and have a fairly solid game.
Minnesota’s Linebackers against Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook:
For both of these players, the key is containing them on the edges of the
field which means Minnesota’s linebackers must be very good in pursuit and
not miss tackles. If the youth of the linebacking corps shows through then
Donovan and Westbrook should have enough success to move Philly to the
next round.
Prediction:
Even with a 1 month layoff, the Eagles are just too good and too hungry
to be beat by a Vikings team without Randy Moss at 100%. Moss’s lack of
explosiveness will show through as he is held in check by
Philadelphia’s all-star secondary. On offense, the Westbrook and McNabb show will be enough to put points on the board. In the end, the Eagles will come
out victorious in a close contest.
Philadelphia – 27
Minnesota – 24
Philadelphia Overview (TC)
The Eagles have built the best record in the NFC during the regular season, in some respect due to the addition of WR T Owens to their roster. Owens meshed extremely well with D McNabb, scoring TD’s and diverting attention away from other WR, TE and RB so that they were often open. Owens absence will be telling - will this Eagles team revert to the one they were pre-Owens? Or have they finally learned how to win, and can they do so without TO? The Vikings are commonly viewed as having a porous defense, and if CB A Winfield cannot go then that perception will be enhanced. But, remember that C Chavous missed last week and GB cicnt take advantage of that. Somehow I think A Reid will take advantage of these absences. On defense, the Eagles blitzing scheme will present the Vikings with a bid dilemma, but then the Vikings have the offensive weapons to attack blitzes with Moss, Wiggins, and Burleson.
Philadelphia Game Plan
On offense, the Eagles will use RB M Westbrook in lots of different ways...attacking the LB on pass routes and running the ball. TE L J Smith or C Lewis will be an effective weapon on seam routes. Too bad the Eagles WR other than TO are so unreliable....Pinkston could be the main man here. Still, look for McNabb to run when he can, not as often as Culpepper does on designed plays but enough to pick up third downs. RB D Levens will spell Westbrook, look for screens when levens is on the field.
Eagles on Defense will have their hands full with R Moss and company. They will continue their blitzing, pressure defense but they will have to be sure they cover Moss and Burleson on deep routes or crossing routes. LB coverage on TE Wiggins is a must, if they dont Wiggins will have a big day, particularly on third down. Pressure on Culpepper is a must, with containment at same time. A lot of this burden will fall on the Eagles LB’s...not sure they can handle it!
Key Matchups:
On offense, the Eagle WR have to make their presence known, they have to let the Vikings know they will be a part of the gameplan, otherwise the Vikings defense can focus on Westbrook and the TE’s without having to double either WR. The TE’s have to be productive catching the ball. McNabb must find some room to run and convert third downs. B Westbrook needs to rush for 100 yds and catch passes for 60 more yards.
On Defense, the Eagles must pressure Culpepper but not get burned by Burleson and Moss for big plays when they blitz. The Eagles corners have their work cut out for them. Containing Culpepper is a must-not sure that MLB Trotter has the speed to do that....
Prediction: given the fact that TO is out of this game and that the Eagles have not played a meaningful game in a month, most prognosticators suggest that the Vikings have a chance to win this game. They do, a slim chance but they have already won once.
Minnesota 24
Philadelphia 26
St Louis vs. Atlanta
St Louis Overview (RG)
The Rams have been one of the most enigmatic teams in the NFL this
year, sometimes looking like the greatest show on turf from their super bowl
years and other times looking like Monty Python’s Flying Circus. Marc Bulger
is a very efficient quarterback when his receivers break free and he has
time to throw to them, but he also can be shaken by a solid defense. While,
effective against the blitz, Bulger has struggled against teams that
can generate pressure with their front four and sometimes hurries his
throws to avoid the rush. Both the lack of a ground game and a patchwork
offensive line do little to help the situation for Bulger so expect him to be
facing constant pressure from the Falcons who lead the NFC in sacks. While
the offense has been off and on, the defense has been primarily off until
recently. The Rams have allowed over 24 points per game and 136.5
yards per game on the ground. Over the last couple weeks of the season and
particularly in the NFC Wild Card game, the Rams defense has tightened
up. Against Seattle, the defense held Shaun Alexander to only 40 yards due
to stepped up play from Ryan Pickett and second year player Jimmy Kennedy.
Rams Game Plan:
On offense the Rams will need to establish some type of running game to
keep the Falcons defensive line from going all out in rushing Mark Bulger.
Once a running game is established, the Rams can start picking apart a
vulnerable Falcons secondary. St. Louis does not necessarily need to have a big
game on the ground to win but they will have to establish a credible running
threat to give Bulger time to throw.
On defense, the Rams will need to contain Michael Vick and that starts
by getting penetration from the interior offensive line and keeping
containment on the outside. If Vick is allowed to break containment and make plays on the move, he will shred the Rams defense.
Key Matchups:
Orlando Pace vs Brady Smith: Pace will be kept in a one on one matchup
with Smith as the Rams shift their double teams to cover the weakness on the
right side of their line. If Pace can’t come up big then Bulger may
find himself on the ground quite a bit.
Rams Line and Linebackers vs Michael Vick: The Rams must contain Vick
and this has two parts. !) The line must get penetration but use
discipline and stay in their lanes. 2) The linebackers must not over commit and be
prepared to wrap Vick up when he is on the move.
Prediction:
While the Rams are on a Roll it looks like Atlanta may be a team that
simply has St. Louis’s number. The Falcons strengths (the running game and a
4 man pass rush) play very well against the Rams and don’t expect that to
change this week. Barring a complete Michael Vick meltdown look for Atlanta
to control this game on the ground and keep St. Louis’s passing game in
check.
Atlanta – 31
St Louis - 24
Atlanta Overview (TC)
Atlanta clinched their Division early too and have managed to ‘rest’ their starters the past 2 weeks. They also had a bye, which has given them time to heal TE A Crumpler, one of the cogs in their offense. Still the key to Atlanta’s play on offense is the play of QB M Vick-when he is using his feet to make plays he is most dangerous. The team speed of StL will help here but I am not sure anyone can contain Vick. The key is for Vick to have success throwing the ball, because if he is one dimensional that wont be enough to win this game.
Falcons Game Plan:
On offense, the game plan is to throw a steady dose of Dunn and Duckett at the Rams defense, just enough to loosen it up so Vick can find Crumpler. WR P Price, Finneran and D White need to become threats in the passing game so the defense cannot concentrate on Vick, the RB’s and Crumpler. Vick has to make good decisions in passing game, run at opportune times, and expect some pressure from the Ram defense.
On defense, the Falcons need to continue to play pressure football, especially with their DL which has amassed a high sack total. Their LB’s need to cover the backs out of the backfield-especially M Faulk-they may not have speed to keep up! The Ram WR’s are very hot, as is Bulger so look for lots of deep passes which means the Falcon safeties have to be alert for the run fakes.
Key Matchups:
On offense, M Vick must pass for 200 yards in order to keep the Rams from stacking the box against the run. TE A Crumpler should be his favorite target. Vick needs to make plays when he can with his feet and protect the football.
On defense, the Defensive backs for the Falcons need to disrupt the pass routes of the Ram WR and the DL must pressure Bulger consistently. Without both of these, the Falcons will surely lose.
Prediction: the Falcons have a lot of karma going for them this season with the change to new coach Mora. Their defense has played extremely well and M Vick is an awesome run threat. Their defense will be tested by this rams offense....
Rams 28
Falcons 27
New York Jets vs Pittsburgh
New York Overview (RG)
The Jets played a very solid game against the upstart San Diego
Chargers but still needed Nate Keading to miss a 40 yard field goal in overtime in
order to advance to the Divisional Championship game. A positive for the
Jets coming into this week is that Chad Pennington finally put in a top
notch performance, throwing for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jets are a
team that has been led by a great defense and solid running game all year,
but unfortunately this is the week where it may all stop. There is no
doubt that Curtis Martin is a gamer and the the Jets have one of the NFLs
strongest defenses, but Pittsburgh may be too much for them to handle.
Jets Game Plan:
As per usual, the Jets will need to pound Curtis Martin and Lamont
Jordan in order to set up Chad Pennington in the play action passing game. The
difficulty will be the Steelers defense which ranks number one against
the run, so look for the Jets to have to pass earlier and more often than
they would like. If Pennington can get hot fast then the Jets might have a
chance in this one but if they don’t get into a quick rhythm it is easy
to get engulfed by Pittsburgh’s aggressive front seven.
On defense, the Jets seem to have Rothlesburger’s number. The Jets are
very good against the run which removes one of the biggest factors helping
Rothlesburger. So far this season, the Jets are the only team that
have put the pressure square on Big Ben’s shoulders and that led to a very close
game.
Key Matchups:
Curtis Martin vs Pittsburgh’s Front Seven: Martin must turn in the
performance of his life against a very stout defense if the Ram’s have
any chance to survive. Look for the old warrior to play his heart out but
come up a bit short against the Steel Curtain Part II.
Prediction:
New York would have to be flawless to beat this team. Pittsburgh’s
defense and ruinning game are too good to put Rothlesberger into difficult
situations, and the Jets are missing defensive end John Abraham which
will hamper their flexibility. Look for New York to keep it close but
Pittsburgh to control the game and the clock in a low scoring win.
Pittsburgh – 20
New York – 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (TC)
At 15-1 the Steelers have the best record in the NFL. But they have a rookie QB, who has had a magical season, but still in the playoffs its tough on rookies but even more so on QB. The Steelers need to come out and establish a strong efficient running game which should take pressure off Big Ben. On defense, the Steelers have rebounded from a very poor year last year to their old defensive prowess.
Steelers Game Plan:
Run the Bus as much as possible. When they have established the run, then they can use their passing game selectively. Burruss and Ward should have good days. Depends on the weather too. The Steeler OL must control the line of scrimmage-especially with J Abraham out for this game.
On defense, pressure Pennington and stop C Martin-those are the keys to this game. Their zone blitzing scheme needs to be effective or the Jets have the weapons to score points.
Key Matchups:
On offense, Big Ben needs to have a good game, but he needs to be efficient too. The Steelers need to have ball control, and score points. If they fall behind they may be in trouble...Which means that the Steeler OL must control the line of scrimmage against an undermanned Jet DL.
On defense, the Steelers DL has to pressure Pennington and the LB’s need to make lots of plays, keeping the plays in front of them.
Prediction: Jets have the necessary tools to win this game.....question is can they do it or not with Abraham, on defense?
New York 16
Pittsburgh 20
Indianapolis vs New England
Indianapolis Overview(RG)
This year’s Colts team seems destined to make the playoffs but in order
to complete their run, they need to get through their arch nemesis the New
England Patriots. Quarterback Peyton Manning is simply playing out of
his mind. He capped off his record breaking season with a 4 touchdown 457
yard performance against the Denver Broncos in the wild card game (the most
yards by in QB in a non-overtime playoff game). Look for Manning to try to
repeat this performance against a weak New England seconday.
Colts Game Plan:
This year the Colts finally have a weakness that they can exploit in
New England. Injuries have left the Patriots star corner Ty Law on the
sidelines and have the team starting two young cornerbacks and Troy
Brown in their nickel package. Add to this the fact that New England will no
longer be able to mug the Colts receivers and there is a sure fire recipe for
success. Look for Manning to try and exploit the matchup of Troy Brown
on Brandon Stokeley all game.
On defense the Colts will need to focus on keeping Corey Dillon in
check. The Patriots will try to control the tempo of the game by running Corey
Dillon and if they do this successfully then they could keep the Indy
offense off the field long enough to edge out a victory. The colts
must force the Patriots into passing situations and keep them from grinding
out long drives on the ground.
Key Matchups:
Brandon Stokeley vs Troy Brown: Stokeley could be in for a huge game
unless Troy Brown steps up big in the nickel position. Look for this matchup
to determine the game as it is the primary weekness of a sound Bellicheck
defense.
Prediction:
Indianapolis will finally get over the hump as they exploit the
Patroit’s weak corners and Manning turns in another legendary performance.
New England – 28
Indianapolis - 31
New England Patriots (TC)
The Patriots are the defending Super Bowl Champs; they have endured a rash of injuries to their CB’s and are trying to survive. They face their worst nightmare under that scenario in the Colts and their WR’s. Still the Pats are at home, they have RB C Dillon to pound the ball and QB T Brady has never had a bad Playoff game.
Patriots Game Plan:
On offense the Pats will focus on DE Freeney since DE MAthis is out of this game-stop Freeney and the rest of the DL you dont have to worry about. Run the ball with Dillon...a lot!! Use the TE and WR judiciously in crossing patterns and seam routes to generate first downs. Ball control is the key...keep making third downs and score every time you have the ball-mostly TD’s if can.
On defense, attack the Colts WR at the line of scrimmage and let R Harrison pummel them when they cross the middle. Pressure the Colts offense with LB and DL in a myriad of blitzes. Having said all that, expect to have a chance to win if the Colts score 28 or less points.
Key Matchups:
On offense the Pats OL must control the DL of the Colts, especially D Freeney. Do that and your chances of winning are greatly improved. C Dillon must rush for 100+ yards in this game. T Brady needs to keep from throwing INT’s.
On defense, look for the Colts to attack the CB’s with any of their WR’s but especially whomever is lined up opposite WR T Brown when he plays in the defensive backfield-the Colts will take advantage of that matchup with Stokely or Harrison.
Prediciton: The Colts lost to the Pats back in week1 when they fumbled the ball twice-they stopped themselves, the Pats didnt. If the field is in good condition and the weather is not a factor the Colts could win. Still, Coach Belichick will devise some way of controlling Manning and the WR....
Colts 31
Pats 33
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