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AFC East
New England Patriots Draft Preview
With the countdown to the draft entering its final two weeks, the Patriots are settling in on their draft strategy. They have three first day picks, the 24th, 28th, and 91st overall picks. That equates to two picks in the first round, and then one in the third round. It is no secret, where Bill Belicheck will concentrate his drafting. He needs to improve a rapidly aging defense that was unable to consistently make the big play and shut down the Super Bowl champion Colts.
Offense:
From both a team and fantasy perspective, the offensive side of the ball is in relatively good shape. Their only real key loss was Daniel Graham who they let walk to the Broncos. Graham a former first round pick never fully lived up to expectations, and was a far cry from the production that Ben Coates used to provide to the Patriots faithful.
QB: Tom Brady: He is going as strong as ever. His 3500 and 24 TD season from last season made him a top ten starter in fantasy football and he should repeat that distinction again this year.
RB: Corey Dillon is gone, but 2nd year man Laurence Maroney should not have any trouble filling those shoes. Last year Dillon and Maroney combined for more than 1500 yards rushing and 19 TDs. As the sole workhorse, this could be a break out year for Maroney. Look for 1300+ yards and 15 TDs.
WR: The Patriots targeted WR as their off season UFA priority. They signed Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, Kelly Washsington and have Reche Caldwell returning as their top WR. This WR corps will not frighten most defenses, but it can still be effective with Caldwell and Stallworth (assuming he stays healthy) each battling to finish the season with 80 receptions for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. That stat line is new territory for both of those guys, but as a #3 fantasy WR, teams could do far worse than either.
TE: Daniel Graham is gone, but last year he was already eclipsed by Ben Watson. His departure should increase Watson’s value and with a healthy OL bonus, from a potent New England offense, look for Watson to move into the top six of TEs. He should average a healthy 13 ppg, making him an excellent #4 or #5 skill player option for most starting line-ups.
OL: The Pats were 11th in total offense and 7th in scoring last year. Those are fantasy starter quality numbers for the #3-#5 OL starter on most teams. Patriots OL are like money in the bank. They may not score the explosive 25 ppg, but they will show up every weak and produce solid points.
Defense:
Defense wins championships, which is why the Patriots were watching the Super Bowl again this year. The Defense has been in decline and this year they will use the draft to fill some holes.
DL: Richard Seymour is overrated and inconsistent. With 22 Tackles and 4.0 sacks, teams who counted on him as a starter were greatly disappointed. Jarvis Green tied with Warren and led the DL with 7.5 sacks. Even with those career numbers, Green is not suitable for anything more than fantasy bench depth. Ty Warren also had a career year with 7.5 sacks, but over his five year career he is better at earning his points by consistently getting more tackles. Of the three, Warren is the safer bet, but should only be considered as a #3 or #4 DL.
LB: Adalius Thomas was this big off-season acquisition for the defense. He will immediately start on the outside for Belicheck and should become a blitzing machine. He was a top OLB with the Ravens, and I think his production may even improve a little bit for the Pats. Bruschi and Vrabel are on their last legs. Watch the draft carefully since I suspect their replacements will be drafted in the first round.
DB: Rodney Harrison is getting old and broken, Asante Samuel wants out or a new contract. These are two of the reasons that the defense suffered a little last year. The first round will figure to find an upgrade at DB with the priority being to replace Harrison.
Draft Prediction:
24th Pick: Lawrence Timmons OLB FSU
28th Pick: Michael Griffen S Texas
91st Pick: Brandon Siler LB Florida
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