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Football - EFS
EFS Games of the Week - Week 10
Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville (JN)
The Jags face the Titans in a matchup that will have major implications in the AFC playoff race.
On offense, the Jaguars fell behind early against the Saints last week and were forced to throw often in early to catch up. Quinn Gray attempted 41 passes and was able to rack up 354 yards and two touchdowns. David Garrard is likely to play this week, which relegates Gray to a backup role once again. However, the Jaguars will likely rely on the running game this week, which makes Garrard a poor start against a tough Titans defense, especially as he is coming off an injury.
The Jaguars fell behind early last week against the Saints and were forced to abandon the run. They know their recipe for success is largely dependent on running the ball early and often, as evidenced by their win two weeks ago against the Buccanneers, when Taylor and Jones-Drew combined to rush 34 times (as opposed to the loss vs. the Saints where they rushed 18 times). Jones-Drew should be started, especially as I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game as well. Due to the tough Titans defense, Taylor should remain on the bench.
At WR, Reggie Williams had a great game last week, but unfortunately, no Jaguar WR should be started this week. They have been fairly inconsistent as a group, with the catches and touchdown passes being spread between Williams, Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones, and Dennis Northcutt. With Garrard coming off an injury, the Jags being unlikely to pass often, and a tough Titans defense, all 4 should remain benched. The same also holds true for TE Marcedes Lewis, though I expect him to be the possible recipient of any touchdown pass that Garrard might throw.
On defense, the Jaguars have been very disappointing the past couple weeks, and will now suffer the loss of Marcus Stroud, who has been suspended for the next 4 games for taking an illegal supplement. Much of the Jaguars defensive woes can be blamed to their ineffective defensive line, which has been the strength of the defense for years. Fellow DT John Henderson has been underachieving this season, as has DE Reggie Hayward, who has only 1 sack this year after accumulating 8.5 sacks last year. The Titans do not attempt many passes, and the OL has provided good protection this year, so their resurgence is not likely this week. Of note, recently-signed Grady Jackson should get ample playing time replacing Marcus Stroud. With the Titans running often, there should be plenty of opportunities to accumulate tackles, so LB Mike Peterson, S Sammy Knight, and S Reggie Nelson are must-starts. OLB Daryl Smith is a borderline play. Pro Bowl CB Rashean Mathis has been disappointing this year, with only 1 interception and 4 Pds this year after 8 and 21, respectively, the year before. I expect him to have a good game this week, especially against Vince Young, who has thrown 8 interceptions in 7 games.
Even without DT Marcus Stroud, I expect the Jaguars to step up defensively and pound it on the ground.
Prediction: Jaguars win 21-13 in a defensive struggle
Tennessee Titans (TL)
When the Titans have the ball...
This offense is getting just enough to keep the surprising Titans in the win column. With the dominant defense on the other side of the ball, Norm Chow is wise to play ball control and not get too cute. When your overall offensive ranking is in the 20s despite the second best running attack in the league, you know that the passing game leaves alot to be desired. Vince Young’s passing skills look more and more suspect by the day (when he can get on the field). I am not sure that those numbers will change this week against a solid (although not statistically showing it) Jacksonville defense. This game will be won in the trenches for sure. If the Titans can rush anywhere near their average of 149.5 ypg, against the Jags middle of the pack rush defenes, then they can win this thing. Conservative offense doesn’t get too many people excited in the fantasy world though.
When the Titans are on defense...
These guys are nasty. If Albert Haynesworth isn’t stepping on your face, then David Thornton and Keith Bulluck are on top of your quarterback. The number one ranked defense in rush yards allowed should match up pretty well against a Jaguar offense that likes to run the ball. I predict the Titans will win the battles up front and shut down the Jag running attack. Even if David Garrard returns he will have a tought time throwing on this defense.
EFS Slant:
On Offense: Probably not worth starting anyone outside of LenDale White in this one. Even Vince Young’s ability to run won’t mean much in this low scoring affair.
On Defense: Start the pleasantly surprising Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper at CB, Thornton and Bulluck at LB and consider Odom and Vanden Bosch at DE.
Score prediction: Low scoring, defensive battle with the homestanding Titans winning out 17-10.
Game 2: Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Dallas (JN)
The Cowboys travel to New York to face the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East. This will be a tough game for the Cowboys, as they face a Giants team that is fresh off a bye week.
Tony Romo continued his excellent season last week by shredding the Eagles secondary. He faces a Giants secondary that seems much improved, but this improvement may be a mirage. Though they are no longer as soft as they were earlier in the year, their strong performance may be attributed to facing 3 weak offenses in the past couple weeks - led by Joey Harrington, Trent Dilfer, and Cleo Lemon. I expect him to have a good game this week in a crucial division matchup.
At RB, Marion Barber and Julius Jones have split the carries pretty evenly the past couple weeks. In fact, with the exception of one game against the Vikings, the duo have split the carries pretty evenly since Week 3, which is also the last week that either of the duo had a breakout game. Both were able to reach the end zone last week in a blowout against the Eagles, but this is not likely in what should be a much closer matchup against the Giants. Neither of these RBs has had a good game since Marion Barber’s great run at the start of the season, and playing either this week is risky.
At WR, Owens had a great performance in his return to Philadelphia, and is a must-start every week. Patrick Crayton, on the other hand, was held without a catch, despite the offense putting up 38 points and 434 total yards on the Eagles. As expected, he’s come back down to earth after a string of great performances earlier this year - he makes a poor play this week. Jason Witten had a play that made the highlights last week - a 53 yard reception that came after his helmet was knocked off by a defender. Witten is a top 5 TE and must be played every week.
On defense, the Cowboys face a Giants offense that has the potential to be explosive, but is also led by the inconsistent Eli Manning, who went 8/22 for 59 yards and no touchdowns two weeks ago in London. The Giants relied on the running game in their win against the Dolphins, and are likely to do so again. In the front seven, OLB DeMarcus Ware, OLB Bradie James, and DE Greg Ellis make good plays, though MLB Akin Ayodele should be on the bench. DT Tank Johnson is also expected to play in his first game of the season this week, though he will be a backup in this one.
In the secondary, Roy Williams is the lone must-start, with Hamlin’s status largely dependent on the quality of your other safeties. At corner, I would recommend starting Newman, as Manning is prone to interceptions. Anthony Henry returned from injury last week and continued where he left off by intercepting a pass, his 5th of the season in only 5 games played. He was the nickel back last week, but should start this week. Whether you start or bench him depends on how lucky you feel. Jacques Reeves, who started in Henry’s absence, will be relegated to nickel duty, and should be relegated to your fantasy bench as well.
Prediction: I expect the Cowboys to win this one on the road, 24-14.
New York Giants (TL)
When the Giants have the ball...
This offense is hard to figure out. They have scored decent in most games (we will ignore that pitiful excuse for a game two weeks ago in London), but they still don’t seem to overwhelm anyone. Eli Manning has been okay with 13 TDs to go with his 9 INTs. I have the feeling that if not for Plaxico Burress’ great season, this team would be at or below .500. They need to find someone else in the red zone (Jeremy Shockey...hello...you out there?). Like many teams, the success of this offense seems to lie with the OL and their much-improved ability to keep Little Eli upright. Olivia Manning’s little boy has a tendency to pout when he gets knocked on his butt too much. The problem this week will be with the Cowboys ability to pressure from the edge. If there is any weakness on the Giants OL, it is Dave Diehl playing tackle. The matchup to watch will be the terror unit known as the Cowboys OLBs vs Diehl. If Eli has time, Shockey and Burress should be able to get open. Shockey should have a particularly good chance against the Cowboys safeties who play more like linebackers. Should be interesting. Another matchup to watch is the stout Dallas run defense against the Giant’s power run game.
When the Giants are on defense...
This defense has been built on a pretty aging base, but so far they are performing nicely. The Giants are ranked in the top 11 in both run defense and pass defense. As will always be my argument, most of that comes from the relentless pressure put on by the front four. Osi Umenyiora (8 sacks), Justin Tuck (7 sacks) and Michael Strahan (4 sacks). These guys feed off of each other and no OL can block both DEs on the field without leaving one of the interior guys free. The Cowboys will fell like they can fight off the onslaught with a good running attack and a solid OL that has only given up 11 sacks all year (good for 7th in the league). It will be interesting to see who wins this battle. If Tony Romo has time, the Giants won’t be able to cover Terrell Owens and Jason Witten (especially if Witten can get matched up with Mathias Kiwanuka.
EFS slant:
On Offense: Think twice about Giant OLs this week as sacks could suck some of their points away. Burress, if he is healthy, is a must start and so is Shockey. Brandon Jacobs is a risky guy, but go with him if you have no other choices.
On Defense: Go ahead and start Tuck and Umenyiora even though the Cowboy OL will be a tough nut to crack. Strahan will no doubt benefit from the other two getting attention so start him in a pinch. Gibril Wilson and Sam Madison are solid in the defensive backfield, and Antonio Pierce and Kiwanuka are solid at LB.
Score prediction: Tight game at the Meadowlands with the home team eeking out the win 24-21.
Game 3: Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts (TL)
When the Colts have the ball...
Another week. Another dominating Colts offensive performance, right? Probably. It is interesting that this San Diego defense has slipped so much (25th overall, 22nd vs. run, 25th vs. Pass). One critical factor in the slip from a top 5 defense a year ago may be the drop in sacks. The Chargers have dropped from tops in the league in sacks to number 17. A year ago opposing offenses had trouble getting plays off due to the tremendous pass rush the Chargers were putting up. This will only complicate matters against the Colts. If Peyton and his receivers are given time, the wheels will fall off of this Charger defense very quickly. The Chargers physical secondary, such as Quentin Jammer, are outstanding at keeping receivers on the line of scrimmage when the QB is pressured, but let receivers get downfield some and Jammer’s coverage skills start to get him in trouble. We also know that Indy is second best in the league having only allowed 8 sacks all season. The Patriots last week were able to come up with 3 sacks, and the effect of good consistent pressure on Manning was obvious. The double winner of all that pressure on the Chargers pass defense is Joseph Addai. Addai should have a decent yardage total with several chances to score.
When the Colts are on defense...
The Colts continue to get the job done on defense against this Charger’s offense that has been less than impressive under Norv Turner. The physical secondary is making opposing receivers think twice about those crossing routes, and the front seven is doing enough (even being undermanned) to slow down opposing running attacks. The Colts have even been employing some nickel as their base defense lately with the recent injuries to their linebackers. Believe it or not, holding the Pats to 24 really should have been enough to win last week, and nine time out of ten Colt offense puts up the 27 or so needed to win. Against the Chargers, the Colt defense will fell no real threats from the San Diego receivers, so the safeties will be able to concentrate on Antonio Gates and the corners will be even more active in supporting the front seven against the run. The Colts are also without starting center Nick Hardwick for another few weeks.
EFS slant:
On Offense: play the Colts OL since the Chargers are unlikely to take away many points due to sacks and the offense will put up a decent number of yards and points. Addai, Manning and Reggie Wayne are all must starts. Dallas Clark should have a decent week too. Steer clear of Marvin Harrison for another week (on the flip side, take a chance on the rookie Anthony Gonzalez if you are in a bye week crunch.
On Defense: Play any of the starting DBs. Gary Bracket seems to be the only LB worth playing, but Tyjaun Hagler has been decent lately so you may want to take a look at him. On the DL, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis show flashes of brilliance but are still just a bit too inconsistent to be guaranteed plays every week. This is a pretty good San Diego OL even without Hardwick.
Score prediction: Colts roll on the road against the hapless Chargers: Indy 35 – SD 21
San Diego (JN)
The Chargers come off an embarrassing loss to the Vikings, giving up an NFL single-game rushing record to Adrian Peterson and being stifled all day long by the Vikings defense. They face another tough opponent in the Colts on Sunday night.
Philip Rivers deserves much of the blame for the offense’s troubles this year, and this was no exception last week. I don’t expect him to throw much in this game, but he will have to be effective with the ones he does attempt if the Chargers are to win this game. He makes a poor start this week against a Colts secondary that was able to contain Tom Brady.
LT comes off a poor week, as he found no running room against a Vikings defense that is tough against the run. I expect the Chargers to rely on the running game heavily this week in an attempt to keep Peyton Manning off the field. I predict LT will rebound this week to the tune of 100+ total yards and two touchdowns.
At WR, Chris Chambers has been largely ineffective since his trade to the Chargers, though he was able to rack up some receiving yards in the 2nd half against the Vikings secondary. I expect him to score his first touchdown as a Charger this week against the Colts secondary. Antonio Gates’ performance suffered, as he was held to only one catch for 10 yards. The fact that WR Legedu Naanee was second on the team in receiving yards last week speaks volumes about just how much the offense struggled. Gates should bounce back this week and be his usual self. As for the other Charger WRs, such as Buster Davis and Vincent Jackson, they should all remain on the bench as the Chargers are unlikely to throw much unless they fall behind early.
Prediction: The Chargers need this win badly, as they reside at 4-4 and in 2nd place in the AFC West. I think they pull it off in a close contest: 27-24
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