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Football - General
Hey all, been a while since my last game preview. Luckily, my last attempt was the write-up that never happened - my prediction in Week 16 that the Dolphins would knock off the undefeated Patriots if Jason Taylor applied the pressure and Lemon had a career day. Well, that didn’t happen, and I return here in the second round of the playoffs with yet another bold write-up.
The Seahawks visit Green Bay in the playoffs, with Lambeau Field providing a big advantage for the home team - though the Packers have lost twice at Lambeau in the playoffs since Holmgren left in 2002. Now MikeHolmgren and Matt Hasselbeck return for a playoff match-up against their former team. Irregardless of what the weather conditions may be, both teams are likely to air it out, and the winner will likely depend on the quarterback play of Favre and Hasselbeck.
When the Seahawks have the ball…
The Seahawks have done remarkably well through the air, and have a solid offense despite an injury to #1 WR Deion Branch and the ineffectiveness of Shaun Alexander. However, much of this success has been against a relatively week schedule, including several weak defenses in the NFC West. The Packers have one of the better defenses in the NFC, and it will be a challenge for the Seahawks. Against the Packers strong defense, I don’t expect Alexander to experience much success against the Packer front led by Nick Barnett, who was 2nd in the NFL in tackles this year. The Seahawks may have to rely on their Pro Bowler Hasselbeck, despite their wishes to keep it on the ground and away from Favre’s offense. The key will be the play of Engram and Burleson vs. the secondary of Woodson and Harris. Any contributions by Branch(or even Hackett) could be critical, as they attempt to keep up with a surprisingly effective and well-balanced Packers attack.
When the Packers have the ball…
Favre has cut down his interceptions despite throwing often in an offense that emphasized the pass early in the season. He has been helped in the 2nd half of the season by the emergence of Ryan Grant, who has been one of the best backs in the NFC in the games in which he has started. His emergence has made this offense extremely lethal, as Favre already has a quartet of receivers that have been effective - Driver, Jennings, James Jones, and Koren Robinson. Donald Lee, the tight end, has also been a surprise. The unexpected emergence of Jones and Robinson(who Favre has been supportive of during his suspension) has made this a difficult offense to defend against.
I expect the Packers to rely heavily on Ryan Grant early, especially as they are at home, and snow is likely. The Seahawks success is dependent on their front 7 slowing down Grant, with Tatupu and Peterson needing to play major roles. If they can make this Packers offense one-dimensional, freeing Kerney and Peterson to blitz without worry and put pressure on Favre, they can hope to force some turnovers.
The Seahawks have an uphill battle - not only do they have to deal with Lambeau - always a rough road destination - but they MUST stop Ryan Grant, and force some turnovers by Favre. If the Packers get the run game going, Hasselbeck and his offense will not be able to keep up(especially with the WR core at less than full strength). With that said, I expect the Seahawks to load the box early in the game to stop the run, and turn this into a battle between Favre and Hasselbeck. Both have deep WR cores, and the key in a close game will be the secondary play of both teams. Woodson and Harris must shut down Engram and Burleson, while the Seahawks secondary must get some interceptions as they face a deep WR core led by Driver and Jennings. Trufant must prove he is a true #1 corner who is deserving of the payday to come in the offseason, Jennings(an underrated corner) must play well, and whoever matches up against the slot WRs and TE Lee, whether it be Russell, Babineau, or Tatupu, must play well in coverage It is no coincidence that Favre’s resurgence in the past two years have been due to the emergence of some unexpected weapons - Jennings the past two years(with 12! Tds this year), as well as a strong rookie campaign by Jones and a career year by Lee.
Prediction: The Seahawks stifle the Packers running game, Favre throws a couple picks, and Hasselbeck has a great day. All three need to happen for a Seahawks win, but I think this is possible. If Grant has a good game, or Hasselbeck is turnover-prone, the Seahawks have no chance.
A high-scoring affair, despite the weather: Seahawks 34, Packers 27
HALFTIME UPDATE: It’s not looking good for the Seahawks, as Grant has run wild. Hasselbeck has been solid, but it won’t matter if the Seahawks D doesn’t step up. Surprising has been the play of Atari Bigby, who has laid a couple big hits on Seahawks WRs today. Pollard and several of the other WRs have had drops, which simply can’t happen if you want to win on the road.
Other bonus predictions:
Jaguars @ Patriots
Garrard must play like he did in the regular season(1 pick every 100+ attempts), instead of the turnover-prone QB who faced the Steelers last week. Key players will be Rashean Mathis, who talked an awful lot of trash against Hines Ward last week, stepping up against Randy Moss, and Maurice Jones-Drew. I don’t believe Pro Bowler Fred Taylor will play a large role in any Jaguars victory. Instead, if Jones-Drew can get 100+ all-purpose yards, either through some long runs or some catches in the flats, the Jags have a chance.
I’m not confident in this one, but…Jaguars 31, Patriots 24
Chargers @ Colts
Manning will NOT be turnover-prone again. He will have a pretty good day, so in order for the Chargers to win, they must stop Addai(a strong possibility), and limit the turnovers on offense(not as likely). Likely to be without Gates, Rivers must be perfect, and LT must dominate. I think LT will have a good game(4+ yards per carry), but Rivers’ mistakes will cost the Chargers(my prediction - 2+ turnovers, including a lost fumble) in the end.
Colts 28, Chargers 20
Giants @ Cowboys
Similar story here for the Giants - their QB must play perfect, turnover-free football(Manning), the RBs(Jacobs and Bradshaw) must be effective and burn clock to keep the ball away from Romo, and the defense has to step up against a strong offense, with the Giants defensive line needing to play yet another terrific game. I think Manning will be unable to keep up the strong performance he displayed the past week two weeks against tough defenses(played well in Week 17 vs. Pats, last week vs. Bucs), and either Newman or Hamlin will secure an interception(maybe both). One of either TO or Witten has a big day, and the Cowboys coast to victory.
Cowboys 34, Giants 16
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