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Football - EFS
New England Patriots (3-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3):
Significance:
New England is looking to move into a tie with Buffalo for the division lead in the AFC East and San Diego is looking to prove they are still an elite team in the AFC. New England has been in California for 10 days with two west coast road games in a row.
New England Offense: (MC)
When New England has the ball, look for them to continue to run a balanced offense that will take some shots down the field. They come into the game ranked 25th in point scored with 19.8 points per game. Matt Cassel leads the Patriot’s air attack, ranked 21st in the NFL, with 707 yards passing and just 3 touchdowns through the first quarter of the season. His main weapon has been Randy Moss, who leads the team with 274 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns - stats that he might have put up in a single game with Tom Brady at the helm. Look for Wes Welker to break out this week, adding to his 251 yards and getting his first touchdown in 2009. The ground attack is surprisingly ranked 17th in the NFL, despite not having a single rusher with more than 150 yards.
New England Defense:
The defense has been good in 2009 - or, at least good enough. Ranked 8th against the pass and giving up a minimal 172.2 yards per game, look for the Patriots to take Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson out of the game. Phillip Rivers will struggle against the Patriots and the ageless, Rodney Harrison should be good for a pick on Sunday. It’ s the defensive line that is getting the job done - they are 20th against the run and have really helped shut down opponents passing attacks with great pressure. Look for emerging star, Jerrod Mayo to continue his excellent rookie season with 10+ tackles in this one.
New England Special Teams:
Steven Gostkowski leads a strong special teams effort in New England and in this defensive game, he should be good for 3 field goals. The Patriots return game is still improving and I look for them to be solid throughout this one.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - Randy Moss (WR); Wes Welker (WR); Sammy Morris (RB); Rodney Harrison (SS) and Jerrod Mayo (ILB).
Bench - Matt Cassel (QB)
Prediction:
New England Patriots 30 San Diego Chargers 27
San Diego Offense:
The Chargers come into Sunday’s game with the 4th ranked offense in the NFL averaging 29.6 points per game. Their ground game is rated 21st with 98.6 yards per game - seems low for a team with LT in the backfield and their air assault is ranked 9th with 226.6 yards per game. With the strong New England pass defense, look for LaDainian Tomlinson to get untracked. He will add to his 331 rushing yard and will easily eclipse the 100 yard mark this week. Darren Sproles will chip in with receptions and some rushing yards - he may hit 100 combined yards this week as well. On the other hand, Phillip Rivers faces a very tough challenge. Look for Rivers, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson to all struggle - play others if you have them.
San Diego Defense:
The Sand Diego defense without Shawn Merriman has been woeful. They are ranked 32nd in the NFL against the pass, yielding 265 yards per game and are 18th against the run giving up over 118 yards per game. Their 379 yards per game of combined offense allowed ranks them 28th in the NFL. They face a though challenge against an improving Matt Cassel and the explosive, Randy Moss. Look for the two to team up for 100 yards and a score on Sunday. The Chargers have to find a pass rush - they have been unable to get good pressure throughout the season. It is difficult to see that changing this week. Stay away for the Chargers on defense.
San Diego Special Teams:
The San Diego special teams have struggled in 2008. They are giving up a lot of yardage to their opponents and are putting their defense in tough positions. The return game has been average at best and look for them to be held in check again this week.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - LaDainian Tomlinson (RB); Vincent Jackson (WR) and the San Diego OL
Bench - Chris Chambers (WR)
Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 34 New England Patriots 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Denver Broncos (4-1):
Significance:
Denver sits alone atop the AFC West. They look to continue their fine season against a tough Jacksonville defense. They are also looking for the 400th win in franchise history this week. The Jaguars need a win to remain in the upper tier of the AFC and have won three straight versus the Broncos.
Jacksonville Offense:
Jacksonville’s statistics show them to be a very average team. They are ranked 23rd in passing offense with 175.8 yards per game and are 14th in rushing offense with 108.8 yards per game. In week 6, they face a Broncos defense that can help turn that slump around. The Broncos are bad on defense. Look for Fred Taylor, 232 yards and 0 touchdowns to break out for 100+ this week and the grab his first score. Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the leading rushers and receivers on the team should have a fine week as well - look for 100+ yards of total offense and a touchdown. And, even David Garrard should have a good day by teaming up with wide-out, Matt Jones for a touchdown seems very likely.
Jacksonville Defense:
The Jaguars have a defense that plays better than its statistics. They are ranked 26th against the pass allowing 237.2 yards per game and they are 15th against the run allowing 106.8 yards per game. But, Denver is without several key weapons; so, look for the Jacksonville defense to step it up. Rashean Mathis is back in the line-up and looks to turn around a bad season. He will have a tough match-up but is up to the task. Look for the rookie Quentin Groves to chip in again this week and pressure the quarterback.
Jacksonville Special Teams:
The Jaguars offer up a great special teams unit. Their kicking game is the key with Josh Scobee ranking among the top kickers in the NFL this season. I look for Scobee to kick through multiple extra points and a couple field goals this week.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - Fred Taylor (RB); Maurice Jones-Drew (RB); Matt Jones (WR); David Garrard (QB); the Jacksonville OL and Josh Scobee (XK).
Bench - Nobody
Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 34 Denver Broncos 31
Denver Offense:
The Broncos offense is averaging 29.8 points per game and are ranked 3rd in the NFL. They have a great passing game, which is ranked second and averages 296.8 yards per contest. Brandon Marshall, 423 yards receiving, and Eddie Royal, 321 yards receiving, are studs. Jay Cutler is turning into one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. He has amassed 1,502 yards passing and 10 touchdowns already this year. This week should be another 300+ yards and 3 scores. I look for 100+ yards from both Marshall and Royal - especially with starting tailback, Selvin Young sitting this one out and Tony Scheffler, tight end, expected to miss the contest. Andre Hall, tailback, makes a terrific sleeper pick this week - he will pick up 50+ yards rushing and a score.
Denver Defense:
Let me share some numbers with you - 26 points per game allowed; 388 yards of offense per game allowed; 254.4 yards passing per game allowed and 134 yards rushing per game allowed. I see a long afternoon against one of the most physical offenses in the NFL for the Denver defense. But, there are some bright spots - John Engelberger, defensive end, has played well and has just enough pass rush ability to make David Garrard move around in the pocket. They still have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Champ Bailey and I look for him to turn in a big play this week for the Broncos. Other than that, avoid this defense like the plague this week.
Denver Special Teams:
Denver also brings a top kicking game to the table; but with injuries to several key starters, the special teams of the Broncos are depleted. It looks to be a tough day for them against the Jaguars return game.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - Jay Cutler (QB); Brandon Marshall (WR); Eddie Royal (WR) and Andre Hall (RB)
Bench - Selvin Young (RB) - Injury and Tony Scheffler (TE) -Injury
Prediction:
Denver Broncos 33 Jacksonville Jaguars 28
Carolina Panthers (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Significance:
The division lead in the NFC South is on the line when the top two teams square off in Tampa Bay this weekend.
Carolina Offense:
Carolina travels to Tampa this week and brings the 15th ranked offense in the NFL along. The Panthers have averaged 207 yards per game passing and 123 yards per game rushing in 2008 and face a "bend but don’t break" defense in the Buccaneers. Jake Delhomme is having a very solid season, posting 1096 yards passing and throwing for 5 touchdowns this year. His favorite target is Mushin Muhammad, who has pulled down 2 touchdowns and 358 yards. Steve Smith, playing well after a two game suspension, has added 262 yards of his own this season. The ground game has been great - DeAngelo Williams coming off a big game in week 5 and the Rookie Jonathan Stewart will find the going tougher this week, however.
Carolina Defense:
The Carolina defense, lead by Chris Gamble and Jon Beason has been strong. They are holding opponents to 14 points per game - 4th best in the NFL. The run defense is the weakness, if you can call it that, allowing 98.4 yards per game. The pass defense has been superior giving up just 156 yards per game in 2008. Look for Beason and Gamble to have big games once again with the linebacker picking up 10 tackles and Gamble adding an interception against the inconsistent Tampa Bay offense.
Carolina Special Teams:
The Panthers play well on special teams. They have good coverage teams and keep their opponents pinned deep in their own territory. Against an offense like the Buccaneers, that skill will come in handy, making it hard for Tampa Bay to mount much offense in this one.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - Jon Beason (ILB); Chris Gamble (CB); Jake Delhomme (QB); Steve Smith (WR); DeAngelo Williams (RB) and Jonathan Stewart (RB)
Bench - Mushin Muhammad (WR)
Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
Tampa Bay Offense:
Little is said about the Tampa Bay offense; but, they are efficient and effective. They rank 16th in the NFL in points scored with 22.8 per game. Their total offensive output is 7th in the NFL averaging 350.2 yards per game and the ground game is particularly effective with 134.8 yards per contest. Earnest Graham is their leading rusher, posting 393 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. But, Warrick Dunn has really come on in the last two weeks and now has 271 yards rushing and a touchdown. Tampa Bay will try to run the ball inside and out against the Carolina defense. Brian Griese and the passing game will struggle - but, they should do enough to keep it close all day.
Tampa Bay Defense:
Tampa Bay has the 8th rated defense in the NFL giving up only 18.8 points per game. The run defense is solid and ranks 14th in the NFL with 99.6 yards allowed per game. Barrett Ruud leads the defense from his middle line-backer spot and appears to be a star in the making. Look for Ruud to dominate the game between the tackles picking up 10+ tackles and a turn-over this weekend. On the outside, the rejuvenated Derrick Brooks is coming off a huge week and will look to contribute more this week against the Panthers rushing attack.
Tampa Bay Special Teams:
Tampa Bay has good special teams play. Their kicking game is solid; but, it has lacked any explosion this year. The inexperience of rookie, return-man, Dexter Jackson has shown through and they need better play out of these units in a close inter-divisional game.
Fantasy Spin:
Play - Earnest Graham (RB); Warrick Dunn (RB); Barrett Ruud (ILB) and Derrick Brooks (OLB)
Bench - Brian Griese (QB); Antonio Bryant (WR) and Ike Hilliard (WR)
Prediction:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 Carolina Panthers 20
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