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Football - EFS
IDP Trend Analyses: CB vs Safeties- 2008 results (6th year)
At the end of each of the previous 5 seasons I have tabulated the relative rankings of Cornerbacks versus Safeties in EFS Enhanced Scoring leagues. When I originally reported on a developing trend that seemed to refute the long-standing recommendation of IDP analysts that Safeties routinely scored more points than cornerbacks, I was uncertain whether this was an aberration or not. Clearly this is now a trend, one all EFS owners should be aware of.
Clearly the data for these six seasons indicate a trend has developed and is continuing where CB's outscore S's in EFS enhanced scoring leagues (see summary below). The number of CB's in the Top 20 scoring DB's in EFS Enhanced Scoring leagues set a record in 2008, but decreased slightly, from 2007, for the number of CB's in the Top 50:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
CB in Top 20 DB’s 14 14 13 13 13 15
CB in Top 50 DB’s 23 32 26 29 33 29
Note the relatively constant number of CB's in top 20 DB's over these 6 years.
In 2008, 7 of the Top 10 defensive backs in EFS enhanced scoring in the 2007 season were CB's; down from 9 of 10 in 2007!
Trends identified in previous end-of-season reviews are still in place at the conclusion of the 2008 season:
1. names in the Top 50, and particularly the Top 20, change each year. Some notables from 2007 (e.g. Nate Clements, Ike Taylor, Terrence McGee) were missing in 2008.
2. Rookies rarely make the Top 20 and few make the Top 50. This year the top Rookies were: Brandon Flowers (#19) and B Carr (#45). Those just missing the Top 50 were Dwight Lowery #51, D Rogers-Cromartie #55, Antoine Cason #58 and Melvin Bullitt #63.
3. Injuries always take a toll but the 2007 season seemed to impact high profile players more than any recent season. Some players of note are: A Winfield #41, Madieu Williams #49, Gibril Wilson #27 (was #1 or #2 most of season until injured). Other notables who aren't even in the Top 100 are Troy Polamalu, Chris Hope, and Adrian Wilson to name a few. Interstingly, most of these players rebounded dramatically in 2008 and had productive seasons-except for Madieu Williams.
4. Scheme changes by certain teams adversely impacted the play/scoring of certain players, particularly safeties: Kerry Rhodes (#52) and Adrian Wilson (#61) are prime examples.
5. Slippage from year to year: always occurs and some high profile players always exhibit significant change from year to year or even over several years. Some examples of both of these in 2007 were- Jermaine Phillips (#19), Asante Samuel (#51), Rodney Harrison (#99) and Darren Sharper (#100). In 2008, only Brian Dawkins (#48) rebounded into the Top 50. In fact, Sharper moved up modestly to #81, while Phillips was injured twice.
This IDP Trend for Defensive Backs has been recognized in other publications and has been studied in much more detail by some authors in 2008 (e.g. Jene Bramel, etc.). They have related this several year trend to Tackle Opportunities afforded Defensive Backs, in some cases related to declining Tackles made by LB's, in addition to other factors. For more detailed information on this trend and their analyses see the pertinent articles at FootballGuys.com.
These are all very interesting observations, but how does an EFS owner use these to his advantage? Well here are some thoughts, again these haven't really changed from previous years:
a. Rookie Draft: don't draft DB's prior to Round 3 or even Round 4 in 16 team leagues. Be prepared to sit on these players until their second year when some may develop (e.g. Richard Marshall, etc).
b. Vet Draft: fill out your Offensive Skill positions (WB, RB, WR, etc) and Defensive skill positions (LB And DE) before drafting DB's. In a 41 Round vet draft this might mean not drafting DB's until after Round 16 or so....
c. Free Agency: look for bargains, guys coming off injuries, and research team defensive schemes (Coaching changes??) before bidding on DB's in RFA and UFA.
Remember- the off season is when you build your team for the next FF season, so make sure you spend as much time researching the Defensive side as you do the Offensive side- in order to win your league's Super Bowl you have to have a balanced team.
As the old adage goes in the NFL- win with Defense!- the same holds true in EFS leagues.
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