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Football - EFS
We always are amazed at how art imitates life, how fantasy foreshadows reality, and how fantasy football combines the two. The 3-4 defense is now back in vogue for the NFL. More and more teams in reaction to three WR set, are moving to the 3-4 in order to generate more pass rush, pick up backs on a flair to the flat, and to take advantage of the ever more athletic hybrid players graduating from the college. We at EFSports have recognized this trend, and for years have used the 3-4 defense as the defense of choice for most starting line-ups.
Although the premise and genius of EFSports is that all positions are of equal value to other positions, with scoring rules modified to create this relative positional parity, all but first year newbies, and those desperate due to injuries or bye weeks, play any formation other than the 3-4 or 3-3-5. The experienced EFS veterans do this because they know that in spite of the best attempts from management to make the Defensive Tackle position sexy and as important in fantasy football as it is in real football, the sad truth is that there are few measurable statistics to help turn reality into fantasy. As a result, the defensive tackle is the least important position in EFS. The 3-4 Defense allows savvy owners to exploit this reality by having to place only one Defensive Tackle in the starting line-up.
Clearly some owners would prefer the 3-3-5 Defense, but as this analysis will show, those owners are doing so only out of desperation, or lack of knowledge of how to best maximize defensive scoring.
The Analysis…
Although it is obvious to most owners, the advantage of only playing 3 DL is the cost benefit ratio of playing a 4th LB or a 5th DB.
In 2009 the top 12 DT averaged 13.91ppg. Second Tier DT (13-24) averaged 10.47 ppg. Therefore, by playing two players, one from each tier, an owner would hope to score on average 24.38 ppg. If the owner was able to get two tier one DT, then the owner could hope to average a whopping 27.82 points.
Compare that to playing a 3-4 defense, where instead of the second DT, the owner plays a second ILB.
For sake of comparison, we will compare the scoring average of only second tier ILB (13-24). They averaged 18.67 ppg. Therefore an owner playing one DT and a second ILB, could hope to average 32.58 ppg. That is an increase of 8 ppg based only on the formation. Even if one assumes, they have a third tier ILB (25-36), the scoring average would be 14.49. That is still a greater average than even the tier one DT. In fact, the highest scoring DT in 2008, was only as good as the 20th best ILB.
Clearly, when given the opportunity to play the 3-4, it would be a mistake to play two DL, but what if owners do not have that second ILB. What is the cost benefit of playing the 3-3-5.
In this instance, since the 5th DB can be either a Cornerback or a Safety, we will compare the 3rd tier Corners and Safeties. We will use stats from Tier three players based on the assumption that the nickel back is the third best player at either position.
The average scoring for Tier three CBs (25-36) is 16.42. The average scoring for tier three Safeties. (25-36) is 14.84. Again, as was the case with ILB, playing a nickel back instead of second DT is the better scoring prospect. Also, just like with the ILB, the highest scoring DT was only equal to the 19th best scoring CB, or the 9th best scoring Safety.
Finally, for those who are enamored with the 3-3-5 formation. The same analysis applies. The cost benefit ratio of playing the second ILB outweighs the benefit of playing the nickel back, provided the second ILB is a second tier player. Otherwise, the third tier nickel back may be the better play than the third tier ILB.
Good luck with your teams.
/>EFSports Fantasy Football
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