EFSports.com News
Expansion Draft, lg 3000: a Survivalist Perspective
By Ryan Garland
Mar 19, 2004, 07:30

Marauders 3000 – Expansion Draft Review

Overall Expansion Strategy

When I took the team over at the beginning of the 2003 season I could see that I had a lot of work ahead of me. I had been spoiled with success with my league 9 team (acquiring Daunte Culpepper at a bargain price and having some stud RBs). This team was a little different; I had inherited two questionable running backs, one due to his situation in Corey Dillon and one due to his age in Eddie George. I did have a great starting QB in Peyton Manning but damn was I paying for him (to the tune of 6 mil plus per year). My team was old and in my opinion without a lot of stud potential. This was clearly a team to rebuild. During the year through Free Agency and a couple trades I was able to get an inexpensive starting RB tandem in Rudi Johnson and Shaun Alexander, and a starting safety in Brian Russell, but I still lacked the nucleus needed to make this team a contender.

I entered the expansion draft with that in mind and had one primary strategy, build around my star players with inexpensive talent and try to dump expensive veterans.
My overall EFS strategy has always placed an emphasis on Running back and linebacker positions and then builds outward and I focused here with my protections as well.

Original Seven Protections

Peyton Manning – Protecting this guy was a must, he has a high salary but it is justified as he is perennially the best point producing Quarterback in EFS. Not only that, he is also a very durable and dependable Quarterback who will solidify that position (albeit at a cost) for years to come.
Shaun Alexander – This guy has the potential to score 20+ touchdowns and record a combined 2000 yards in the Seahawks offense. He can catch the ball and run between the tackles and all of this in an offense that could become the Pacific Northwest’s version of the Rams. I also have him at a bargain basement price.
Rudi Johnson – I like to be strong at running back and have always geared my teams towards this. With the change to position specific scoring this puts me in a difficult position as I can only play one stud running back instead of the two in standard leagues. However, my weak WR position can’t be overcome overnight so I decided to keep two RBs and Johnson is a guy great potential. I look for him to be an amazing bye week fill in and great injury protection for Alexander. I also wanted to keep him and his great salary out of the hands of the expansion teams.
Amani Toomer - I departed a little from my price for value criteria with this protection but I felt that I had to have at least one dependable receiver and Amani Toomer was the only guy on my roster that fit that bill. At 3 mil a year I definitely think he is overpriced but he should produce solid WR numbers for me week in and week out.
Zach Thomas – Inside Linebacker will be a critical position for me in PSS scoring. I have always liked running the 3-4 and due to the shortage of top notch ILBs, this formation will become much more difficult in our new format. Thomas is a starting point in my strategy shore up this position and should provide a rock in the middle for years to come. For a top flight ILB his salary is definitely tolerable and he is well worth the protection.
Brian Russell – This guy definitely produced stud numbers in 2003 and I really like his playmaking potential. The jury is still out in terms of his long term stud potential but the chance is there and I love his inexpensive salary. Hopefully this guy can be my stud at the safety position and allow me to focus my energies towards improving other positions.
Kareem McKenzie – We got a glimpse at how powerful the Jets offense can be when Pennington finally hit the field this year and Offensive Tackle is the highest scoring line position. Because of that I decided to lock up McKenzie and his low salary as a way to build a cheap and effective line.

The Draft

First Player Drafted – Scott Fujita
(Protections: Nai’ll Diggs, Joey Porter)

It felt like ages before my first player was selected but it finally happened and quite honestly I was a little shocked by the selection. I’m not saying it wasn’t a good pick, it was, but I had banked on Corey Dillon being my first player to go and then protecting two OLBs to have a strong corps of starters at LB. Instead, the first player selected was Scott Fujita at OLB. His salary made him a very attractive pick and he was slated to be my first protection. With Fujita gone I felt a bit nervous about my OLBs and decided to shore that position up instead of protecting my best available player, Corey Dillon.

Nai’ll Diggs was the first of my two covers. Diggs is a very athletic linebacker who has yet to reach his full potential but still puts up solid numbers. I think 2004 will show this guy to be a solid 20 point per game producer and at his salary that is one heck of a steal.

Joey Porter was my next cover and although he is somewhat pricey I think he is worth it. Porter came back from a drive by shooting to play an integral role for the Steelers LB corps and still produced solid numbers. I think his productivity and explosiveness come back in 2004 and he once again reaches the top ranks of OLBs.

If Dillon would have been selected I would have protected Fujita and Porter, leaving Diggs open. Other players I considered protecting in this round were Corey Dillon as potential trade bait (his salary made me shy away), and Mike Anderson to solidify my starting fullback (with Dillon on my roster I felt he’d last another round).

Second Player Drafted – Corey Dillon
(Protections: Mike Anderson, Michael Barrow, Jason Witten)

Not a real shock here, but I have to say with him not being picked first I was kind of holding out hope that he would be passed over again. No such luck. Dillon is expensive but is a very talented RB and once out of Cincinnati will produce good numbers for his new owner.

Mike Anderson will provide a solid anchor at fullback on my team, his between the tackles running ability makes him one of the biggest yardage and touchdown threats at the position and playing for the Broncos gives him some great line points. With Alstott’s future uncertain I see Anderson as the top EFS fullback for 2004.

Michael Barrow – Damn this guy is old, I didn’t like having him as a starter coming into last year but he just kept producing. I really want to run a 3-4 which means I need another starting ILB and I think this old guy can give that to me for at least one or two more years.

Jason Witten - I think it is only a matter of time for Witten to flourish in Parcells’ offense and love him as an original rookie pick with a low salary.

Thought about Kitna at this pick but I will be happy with Carter as backup QB if Kitna goes, also considered Justin Smith but his salary is higher and he hasn't showed me a ton of promise yet.

Third Player Drafted – Quincy Carter
(Protections: Jon Kitna, Brad Hopkins, Victor Riley)

This one was a huge shock, I though Carter would be the last of my QBs to be selected and had determined that I would be satisfied keeping him with a late pick. Carter, although very athletic, simply doesn’t strike me as a QB that can play for Parcells. I was happy to see him chosen at this point but it did force me to protect a backup QB a little earlier than planned as I saw Kitna and Maddox as fairly attractive expansion targets.

Between Maddox and Kitna I determined that Kitna had the best chance of starting in 2004. Maddox had an awful year and I just didn’t see the Steelers going back to him in 2004. My analysis here was a bit off here and I will discuss it in my post expansion player movement section, but I still like Kitna at his low salary. This pick was meant to solidify my backup QB position and maybe even provide some trade bait.

Brad Hopkins is a solid OT for a team that year in and year out seems to get it done on offense. The team is getting old but I think the Titans will still be able to string together solid offensive performances for a couple more years. Hopkins solidifies my starters at OT and is at a reasonable price.

This pick was a little out of whack but I decided to go with value instead of need here. I decided that Victor Riley’s salary compared to the Saint’s offensive potential was just too good a deal. With Riley protected here I set the groundwork for trading another OT next year.

Other protections I thought about were Chris Brown and Justin Smith but both of their salaries made me look elsewhere this round.

Fourth Player Drafted – Chris Brown
(Protections: Justin Smith, Champ Bailey, Rogers Beckett)

I thought that Brown’s exorbitant salary would keep teams away a bit longer and might have protected him in this round had someone else gone. When it really gets down to it though, I hate holding non-producing young players at high salaries and I don’t think Brown will produce until 2005. This does leave me an interesting dilemma with George still on my roster but I’m not too worried about my RB situation.

I finally decided to bite the bullet and Justin Smith’s high salary with this protection. When it came down to it, I just couldn’t afford to leave him open at this point. He’s a guy with a lot of potential who produces decent DE numbers and my other Defensive Ends are horrible.

Champ Bailey was another need pick, I think he may be too good to put up huge numbers but he should always be a solid contributor and I like that for a starting corner. His salary is competitive as well.

Rogers Beckett is kind of a stretch here but 2 factors weighed heavily in me taking him at this pick. The first was his great salary. Second was his potential. Beckett is a hard hitting safety in the Rodney Harrison mold and this alone could mean huge numbers in the future. Overall he is a decent #2 safety at a great price.

Other guys I considered here were Maddox who I passed on because I had protected Kitna, Ted Johnson who simply had too many question marks, and Troy Brown who I also think has some question marks and a high salary.

Fifth Player Drafted – Tommy Maddox
(Protections: Ted Johnson, Tai Streets, Freddie Jones)

Not too worried about losing Tommy at this pick, I already have my backup QB in Kitna and I really don’t think Maddox will be a starter next year. I view this as a chance to solidify my other need positions.

I chose to take the leap and protect Ted Johnson as my backup ILB. I’m not too sure where he fits in New England when he comes back from his injury but he had a great 2002 and at this point is worth the risk given his bargain basement salary.

The final two protections in this round came down to three players: Freddie Jones, Tai Streets and Troy Brown. All of these guys had some major question marks. Streets had an uncertain contract situation and a history of average production, Brown is being challenged by younger receivers in New England and Freddie Jones is simply a very talented enigma who has only teased with his production so far. I decided to go with streets at WR because of his low salary and deep threat ability and Freddie Jones hoping that the Cardinals can finally put it together.

Sixth Player Drafted – Ben Taylor
(Protections: Quentin Jammer, John Lynch, Jason Webster)

I had no problem seeing Taylor go with this pick, he is a solid LB but I just don’t see the upside in him.

This round I focused completely on my secondary. I took Quentin Jammer to give me a second young corner; I think his production should increase enough to make him a good #2. Lynch was selected as a solid backup at safety, I don’t see a huge upside but he should be a decent bye week and injury fill in. My final pick was Jason Webster and I picked him gambling that he would not be back in San Francisco in a support role. From past history, Webster has shown that he can produce starters numbers when he is in his team’s starting lineup. Overall, I think that he may have more potential to produce points than either of my two starting corners.

Other players I considered here were Troy Brown and William Joseph. Overall these guys still had too many question marks to justify their contracts.

Seventh Player Drafted – Kendall Simmons
(Protections: Eddie George, Junior Seau, William Joseph)

Would have liked to have him as a later protection but I don’t like spending much at all on my OL so I hadn't protected him, his selection forced me to start looking more at protecting some OG players in the next couple of rounds.

At this point I decided to protect some of my more expensive players. Eddie George gives me a lot of depth at RB and some room to look for trades from this position of strength. I think he has at least one more year as a starter in Tennessee. Junior Seau still has some gas left in his tank too and will be a solid substitute at the OLB position, his price is good too. Finally, I protected William Joseph because I see some solid potential with his skills at penetrating the line. He may be a little expensive but for a possible Warren Sapp type DT it’s worth it.

I considered protecting John Hall, Darren Bennet and/or an offensive guard with these selections but I felt that it was still too early for all of these slots and I really didn’t have guards worth protecting.

Eighth Player Drafted – Shawn Bryson
(Protections: Frank Middleton, Reuben Brown, John Hall)

Bryson would have provided a nice deep sleeper to have on my squad but he had a good chance to grab the starting job last year and never really panned out so I wasn’t that high on him. I’m deep and have two young guns at the RB position so I’m not too worried about losing this underachiever.

I finally decided to protect my mediocre guards here and Middleton was my first pick. Two years ago, the Raiders were one of the league’s most potent offenses, I’m hoping Jerry Porter’s injury was the reason they tanked last year. If the raiders heat it up again I like this guy for a couple more years. My next guard protected was Reuben Brown, he’s a perennial Pro Bowler and the Bills could have a great offense, best upside of any of my guys left. Finally I protected John Hall at kicker instead of Olando Mare due to the potential of Washington’s offense and Mare’s RFA status.


Ninth and Final Player Drafted – Todd Wade
(Protections: Darren Bennett, Mike Compton, Larry Moore)

Was loaded at tackle and this guy is on shaky ground in Miami as well as being an RFA player. No big loss.
Bennett is one of the best punters around and is inexpensive. I wanted to protect a punter and he was the only real choice. Compton was protected for his potential to get back in the starting rotation in New England and produce solid points. I protected Larry Moore for lack of any other centers to protect.

Really didn’t see anyone else that I would protect here, my thin lineup is now thinner but I have a core talent base to build around.

Expansion Draft and Trade Deals

Having few Rookie Draft picks in 2004 closed the door on many trading opportunities but I was still able to pull off one draft and trade deal. The deal was for Corey Simon and Daniel Graham and I gave up my 2004 2nd, 6th, and 7th round picks. Both are RFAs but Graham has a fifth round compensation and Simon a second which would get me usable draft picks if they are taken. I really like Graham’s potential based upon his end of year performance in New England and because of that I tagged him with the Franchise designation, Graham and Heap will really give me a solid TE corps which is important given my awful receivers. Simon was basically a neutral trade as the signing of him would guarantee that I get my second round pick back, either moving a little up or down in the round. That compensation gives me the ability to evaluate his post RFA salary and make a decision with very little pressure. Assuming Simon stays on my roster, I think I have picked up one of the best young DTs in the game and have a solid starter at that slot for years.



Post Expansion Player Movement’s and Impact

The Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis Trade

This trade really changed the layout of my team. With Portis leaving Denver, I may have lost a great fullback and gained depth at running back if Anderson becomes the starter in Denver. If he is designated a Halfback then I am concerned about losing points by a weakening of the FB position and Anderson being in a RBBC situation with the speedy Quentin Griffin. On the other side of the ball, I think Bailey’s value can only go up with his trade to Denver. Denver’s prolific offense will force opposing teams to throw and give Bailey more opportunities to make plays.

The Larry Moore Debacle

The Redskin’s went and resigned former Center Cory Raymer and moved Moore to not second but 3rd on the depth chart, virtually guaranteeing this guy will be waiver fodder. Damn I have no depth at this position. San Diego’s offense better heat up and quick.

Reuben Brown

This guy was waived by the Bills due to cap considerations. I’m hoping that he picks up with a solid offense. He is pretty much starting wherever he goes so at least I’ll get some line points for him but the uncertainty is annoying.


© Copyright 2003 by YourSITE.com