Football - EFS
NFL Games of the Week- Week 12
By Travis Laver and Jimmy Ng
Nov 22, 2007, 07:09

NFL Games of the Week- Week 12

Game 1 Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers (JN)

The Packers face the Lions in a Thanksgiving day matchup, and with the Packers having a significant lead in the NFC North, this game could be to help secure a 1st round bye week. The Lions need a win to keep up in the AFC playoff chase after dropping the past two games.

Brett Favre and the Packers have relied heavily on the passing game this year, and this will not change against a Detroit secondary that has given up tons of yardage, with mediocre QBs such as Eli Manning, Kurt Warner, and Patrick Ramsey all getting 250+ passing yards against them in recent weeks. Favre has attempted 38.4 passes per game this year, and he should reach that mark again. However, the Lions are also near the top of the league in interceptions, with 15. Expect Favre to get around 300 passing yards, with a couple scores, but also an interception or two.

Ryan Grant has emerged as the Packers’ primary RB, though his performance has been inconsistent and led to only one rushing score in the past 4 weeks. The good news is he has averaged around 20 rushes per game despite the inconsistent performance. With the bye weeks over, Ryan Grant should not be started this week.

Donald Driver makes a good play against a poor Lions secondary, though his status depends on your teams’ other receivers. His yardage has been fine the past couple weeks, though he has only reached the end zone twice this season, as opposed to eight last year. Those touchdowns have gone to Greg Jennings instead, who has played extremely well since returning from an injury earlier in the year. I expect Driver to have the better game this week, though Jennings makes a decent play if needed. James Jones and Koren Robinson are the #3 and #4 receivers, and should not be started. At TE, Donald Lee had a breakout game with 2 touchdown catches, though I don’t’ expect similar production this week. Lee’s optimistic projection this week is 4-5 catches for about 50 yards, which is good for a TE, but not great.

On the other side of the ball., the excellent Packers defense face an offense led by the error-prone Jon Kitna, who has thrown 11 interceptions this year after throwing 22 the year before. In addition, the Lions have had problems protecting Kitna, as he has been sacked 40 times this year.

For the front seven, LBs AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett, DEs Aaron Kampman and KGB, and DT Corey Williams are must-starts. Charles Woodson is the lone must-start in the secondary, though CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby stand to benefit from any careless picks by Kitna.

Prediction: The Lions’ home field helps, but not enough.
Packers 31
Lions 27

Game 2: Philadelphia vs New England

Philadelphia Eagles (JN)

The Patriots hope to get to 11-0 in a Sunday Night game against an Eagles team that still has slim playoff hopes, with a win this week an absolute necessity.

On offense, the Eagles could be in trouble, as McNabb is expected to miss the game. He will be replaced by AJ Feeley, who was serviceable last week in a win against Miami. In either case, I expect either McNabb or Feeley to be very conservative early against the Patriots, relying on short passes and the running game. If the Eagles are close, I expect Feeley to reach (on the optimistic side) 150 yards and two touchdowns. If they are blown out, I expect Feeley to throw about 35+ passes with several interceptions. Neither Eagle QB makes a good start this week.

The Eagles relied heavily on the running game last week with McNabb injured, and Westbrook rushed a season-high 32 times. This will likely be the case again this week, though they may be abandoning the run if the game gets out of hand. Either way, the Eagles will be utilizing Westbrook heavily, either through the running game or catching short passes in what will be a conservative Eagles attack. I predict that the Eagles will stay close - expect 100+ rushing yards, 50+ receiving yards, and two touchdowns for Westbrook this week. Buckhalter will get some carries as well, but should not be started in any formats.

The top two receivers are Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, with Curtis having a surprising breakout season and Brown performing better after a slow start to the season. However, with uncertainty at QB, two borderline plays become non-starts. The 3rd receiver will be Jason Avant, and the TE is LJ Smith. Smith has broken the 40 yard receiving mark in the past two weeks, which is better considering his overall performance this season. He’s not a great start, but I think he has a decent chance at 60 yards and a touchdown. I expect Feeley to rely on his check downs often against a good Patriots defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles face the best offense in the league this year. Tom Brady has been sacked only 10 times this year and thrown only 4 picks.

In order for the Eagles to compete, their secondary will need to play extremely well, and the pass rush will need to get to Brady. I don’t expect the pass rush to be particularly effective, and DE Trent Cole is the only must-start on the front four, and Kearse should remain on the bench. Of the Lbs, Spikes is the only must-play, with MLB Omar Gaither questionable. The key to this game will be the secondary, led by S Brian Dawkins and DB Sheldon Brown. Dawkins has had a disappointing, injury-plagued year - similar to fellow CB Lito Sheppard. Both will need to play well in order for the Eagles to have a chance. I expect the Eagles to be competitive, so I would recommend starting Brown and Dawkins, while benching Sheppard and S Quintin Mikell, who replaced much-maligned S Sean Considine. If you want to be safe, all 4 should remain on the bench.

Prediction: The Eagles are whopping! 23-point underdogs in this one. However, my hunch says the all-around skills of Westbrook and the secondary led by Brown and Dawkins forces several Brady interceptions -finally ending the Patriots perfect season.

Eagles 31
Patriots 24

Game 3: Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals (JN)
Palmer has been one of the most disappointing QBs this year, as he has already thrown 14 interceptions this year, including 4 last week. However, his yardage has still been there, and he benefits greatly from the recent turn of a 3rd weapon on offense - Chris Henry. Despite facing a tough Titans defense, I would definitely start Palmer and expect a solid bounce back game - 250 yards and 2-3 touchdowns.

Kenny Watson has emerged as the #1 RB on this team, as Rudi Johnson has been unable to emerge from his season-long funk. Both will get around 8-10 carries, but neither makes a good play against a very tough Titans defense.

The receiving core has been stellar this year, with the three-WR tandem of CJ, Houshmandzadeh, and Chris Henry. Both CJ and Houshmandzadeh have been banged up of late, but both remain must-starts. Against a tough Titans defense, I would recommend benching #3 WR Henry as well as TE Reggie Kelly.

On the other side of the ball, the horrific Bengals defense faces a struggling offense, with the Titans running game performing poorly in recent weeks, and Vince Young continuing to be turnover-prone. The only starts are LB Landon Johnson, S Madieu Williams, and DE Justin Smith. I wish I could recommend starting one of CBs Leon Hall, CB Deltha O’Neal or S Dexter Jackson, as surely one will benefit from the interceptions that Vince Young throws around, but I can’t do so due to their poor performance this year.

Prediction: The Bengals pick up a win at home, hurting the Titans’ playoff chances in the process.

Bengals 28
Titans 17

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